Introduction

Re-reading chapters on randomness and fragility.

Taleb’s emphasis on "silent evidence" is crucial for my AI work^[1].

The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Black swan events shape our history in disproportionate ways.
Understanding them requires a shift in perspective.

White swans

We Just Can't Predict Everything

Many standard statistical models fail to account for extreme events.

• Fat tails matter more than averages.
• Human cognitive biases blind us to rare events.

Fragility and Antifragility

Some systems are fragile and break under stress, while others benefit from disorder.

Fate of dice

Subsection: Silent Evidence

Silent evidence is data we don’t see because only survivors are visible^[2].

Conclusion

Learning to recognize black swans and designing robust systems is more practical than predicting them.